Regina Meyer Branski
The oil price variations affect the economy of all countries. In 2006, Brazil discovered important oil reserves in the so-called pre-salt and became an important producer. Consequently, it became more affected by fluctuations in the price of this commodity. The impact of changes in oil price on a country's economy can be assessed by looking at its relationship with the economic indicators. The objective of the study was to identify patterns and relationships between the oil price and the following Brazilian economic indicators: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Trade Balance, Inflation, Tax Collection, and Unemployment Rate. After collecting quarterly data for the last 20 years, between 2000 and 2019, it was applied the statistical tests of Cross-Correlation, Granger Causality, and Cointegration. The cross-correlation test showed that increases in the oil price are moderately associated with increases in GDP and Tax Collection. Oil prices and Inflation showed a weak negative correlation, not showing association. The correlation between oil prices and unemployment was negative moderate, indicating that the increases in oil prices are associated with the fall in employment. Finally, the correlation between oil prices and the Trade Balance varied from negative to positive. Evidence of Granger’s causality was found only between the oil price series causing GDP. And it was not found cointegration in any series, which indicates non-existent long-term relationships. The identification of patterns and relationships between oil prices and economic indicators contributes to the adoption of
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