Ingeniería de Sistemas de Riego y Drenaje

Water Balance Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources in Strumica River Basin

Abstract

C vetanka Popovska and Violeta Geshovska

Water resources are the most important part of the ecosystems in the Republic of Macedonia and are sensitive to climate change with regard to both, quantity and quality. Also, they are the most spatially diverse and are closest to the area of human activities. Due to the geographical location a major portion (84%) of surface water is domestic. This paper presents the vulnerability assessment of the water resources on climate change for Strumica river basin in south eastern part of the Republic of Macedonia conducted within the Third National Communication. Statistical trend analyses have been obtained on basic parameters such as air temperature, precipitation, and runoff with special attention to the southeast part of the country that was assessed within the First and Second National Communication as the most vulnerable region in the country. It was concluded that maximum runoff has no significant changes in either short-term or long-term trends. Statistical trends of the recorded precipitation and surface runoff indicate that the last decade can be recognized as a hydrological wet period. An approximate water balance model was conducted presenting the current condition (2000/2010) and projected condition (2025). In summary, as in other countries, the water resources in the Republic of Macedonia are vulnerable to potential changes in climate because of increasing demands, the sensitivity of simple water management systems to fluctuations in precipitation and runoff, and the considerable time and expenses required to implement adaptation measures.